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(Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire)
I believe that data and patterns are extremely valuable. While football is far and away my favorite sport to watch–especially when one or more of my own or my opponents Fantasy Football players are playing–I was raised on baseball and still love it as my favorite sport to this day. My dad, who taught me how to play the game, never tried to get too fancy with his instruction and simply looked at what worked: the fundamentals; we were a Tom Emanski’s Baseball World family through-and-through. I remember we’d love watching the Little League World Series together, and my dad would always point out how the teams from Chinese Taipei would come to the US and often times dominate American kids. The Chinese Taipei teams were often a lot smaller than their American opponents on the field but they hit for just as much power and percentage, and quite frankly kicked a whole lot of tail year after year, and they still do to this day.
Why is that, though?
It’s because they are always extremely well coached and the focus on the fundamentals, the basics, the things that are proven to work, and my pops saw their pattern of success and wanted us kids to model that. And while that story isn’t a direct parallel to what you’re about to read, it’s what came to mind when I began writing this post with this simple ethos, if you will:
Look at what works, and do exactly that.
When it comes to who Fantasy Football RB1*s are, there are a set of fundamentals that the data suggest we must follow for the highest chance of success. Below are some of those data points, an overview of historical RB1 attributes and performance that can begin to shape a legitimate profile of a Fantasy Football RB1* that can color your running back evaluations and draft strategy for the coming season. Look at what has worked in the past, and then draft exactly according to that.
The average RB1* in half-point PPR leagues is a shade over 25 and a half years old (25.6), based on an August 1st age assessment date (roughly the start of the pre-season every year). In half-point PPR leagues there have only been 5 RB1*s at or older than the age of 30 at the start of the pre-season:
74 of the 91 total RB1* seasons in half-point PPR leagues since 2000 have been under under the age of 28 years old. Said differently, a whopping 81% of all RB1*s haven’t hit their 28th birthday by the start of the NFL preseason. So if you’re looking to draft a running back to return RB1* value, history suggests you should target a running back that hasn’t reached their 28th birthday by the time the pre-season starts, and, ideally, is as close to 25 and a half years old as possible.
The average RB1* is a shade under 6ft tall at 5’11” and 1/6 inch, and weighs 218 pounds. There’s never been an RB1* shorter than 5’7” (Maurice Jones Drew) or lighter than 190 pounds (Charlie Garner), and there’s never been an RB1* taller than 6’3” (Eddie George) or heavier than 250 pounds (Peyton Hillis). In fact of the 91 RB1* seasons in half-point PPR leagues since 2000, 22 were 6’1”, 9 were 6’0”, 24 were 5’11, and 25 were 5’10. If you’re doing that math at home that’s 80 of the 91 RB1*s in half-point PPR leagues since 2000 are between 5’10” and 6’1”, with nearly 80% of that number being 5’10” or 5’11”. There’s a LOT more variance in weight, but 31 of the 91 RB1*s (roughly 1/3) since 2000 have been between 210 and 215 pounds.
And just for fun, because I LOVE college football and hope to be throwing out some red meat for fan rivalries, if you’re drafting a guy from the University of Tennessee, historically, you’ve got a good shot at an RB1. The University of Tennessee has had five RB1*s since 2000 (Jamal Lewis, Travis Henry, Arian Foster, Alvin Kamara, and Charlie Garner). The SEC has had 7 (between Tennessee and Georgia), the Big 12 has had 5 (between Oklahoma and Texas), the Big 10 has had 5 (between Ohio State and Penn State), and the ACC has had 5 (between Miami (FL) and Pittsburgh). Go ahead and fire up the “SEC! SEC! SEC!” chants.
Only 2 running backs have ever an RB1* season on less than 200 carries, Alvin Kamara (twice) and Charlie Garner with the Raiders in 2002, with the next closest being Christian McCaffrey in 2018 with only 219. If the guy you’re targeting isn’t projecting to run the ball a bare minimum of 14 times per game, or about 224 carries in a season, you’d better hope they’re named Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey because history says they’ve got essentially zero chance of being an RB1*.
The average number of receptions in a season for a Fantasy Football RB1* is 58; Fantasy Football has not seen an RB1* average fewer than 2 receptions per game since Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams over a decade ago. The Top 50% of all RB1*s since 2000 have had 57 or more receptions in a season. If the guy you’re targeting doesn’t figure to snag at least 57 receptions (3-4 receptions per game over the course of a 16 game season), historically, you have worse than a coin-flip’s chance of getting an RB1* season out of him.
Naturally, that brings us to total touches. Guess what? There’s never been an RB1 who’s had fewer than 200 touches. Alvin Kamara did it on only 201 touches in 2017 (which is fantastically absurd). The next closest to him was Charlie Garner in 2002 doing it on 273 touches, and then Kamara again in 2018 doing it on 275 (along with Jamaal Charles in 2010). There’s only ever been 6 RB1*s that had fewer than 300 total touches in a season (just add LeSean McCoy in 2016 and DeAngelo Williams in 2008 to those above and there you go), with the average RB1* getting a shade over 364 total touches in a season. If the guy you’re targeting doesn’t project for at least 350 touches, historically speaking, the odds are not in your favor that that individual will turn in an RB1* season.
And finally, as we know the ability is availability. All data on theRB1Machine.com is based on a 16-game season, and with that in mind, there’s never been an RB1* in terms of total points scored in a season who’s played less than 12 games (LeVeon Bell was an RB1* in 2016 on only 12 games). 83 of 91 played 15 or 16 games in a season. It seems like a no-brainer (but it’s always so tempting to go after the Leonard Fournettes of the world in hopes they’ll stay healthy all year, ain’t it?), but if you’ve got a guy with an notable injury history you simply should not be drafting him at an RB1 premium. Period.
Keep all this in mind when you’re drafting over the coming weeks, folks. It just might save you a whole lot of frustration and make your running back stable a whole lot more fun to manage.
