Quality Over Quantity?: A Review of RB1* Point-Per-Touch Based on Overall Team Rush Offense Rank

(Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire)

One aspect of my overall strategy in identifying potential Fantasy Football RB1*s is obvious and simple: What offense are they in and how well does that offense run the ball?

I’ve have to learn the hard way ignoring that very relevant fact. In 2016, my first-round draft pick was Adrian Peterson, a pick that was an over-reaction to past foibles in drafting guys like C.J. Anderson in the first round that had the opposite of a high-probability for RB1* production. I thought to myself in 2016, “Peterson has been a machine his entire career; let’s play it super safe and take him late in Round 1!”. Well, Peterson was averaging less than 2 yards per carry in that Vikings offense before he went down in Week 3 for the remainder of the Fantasy Football season. I don’t have enough room in this post to review all of the other obvious signs I missed that were reasons not to draft AD that year, not the least of which was most also obvious: the Vikings offense, and in particular, their terrible offensive line that season.

Moving forward from that learning experience, I really began focusing on the offense guys would be in when I drafted them, not just their talent, past performance, etc. It was Alvin Kamara late in the 2017 draft. It was taking James Conner last in my 2017 and 2018 drafts. Guys that, at the time, didn’t necessarily project to a lot of usage (if any at all…it was a miss in 2017 for Conner but I hit the jackpot in 2019), but had talent, and most importantly, were going into situations where running backs just seemed to always succeed. Because if, for some reason, they do end up getting some notable PT you never know what could happen from there…

But this all leads me to my next point: what’s the value of a Fantasy Football RB1*’s touches, based on the quality of the rush offense they run in? Before we dive further into this one, first, feast your eyes on some delicious raw data (some of it isn’t really relevant to this post but it’s just so fun to look at):

Year	Team	Off. Rush. Rk	Player	Total Touches	PPT	Rush Atts	Recs	Designator
2017	New Orleans Saints	5	Alvin Kamara	201	1.35	120	81	RB1
2000	St. Louis Rams	17	Marshall Faulk	334	1.24	253	81	RB1E+
2018	New Orleans Saints	6	Alvin Kamara	275	1.12	194	81	RB1+
2002	Oakland Raiders	18	Charlie Garner	273	1.11	182	91	RB1+
2006	San Diego Chargers	2	LaDainian Tomlinson	404	1.10	348	56	RB1E+
2001	St. Louis Rams	5	Marshall Faulk	343	1.10	260	83	RB1E
2018	Los Angeles Rams	3	Todd Gurley	315	1.07	256	59	RB1+
2002	Kansas City Chiefs	3	Priest Holmes	383	1.06	313	70	RB1E
2013	Kansas City Chiefs	10	Jamaal Charles	329	1.04	259	70	RB1E
2003	Kansas City Chiefs	15	Priest Holmes	394	1.04	320	74	RB1E
2017	Los Angeles Rams	8	Todd Gurley	343	1.02	279	64	RB1E
2018	Carolina Panthers	4	Christian McCaffrey	326	1.00	219	107	RB1+
2008	Carolina Panthers	3	DeAngelo Williams	295	1.00	273	22	RB1
2016	Arizona Cardinals	18	David Johnson	373	0.98	293	80	RB1E
2002	Denver Broncos	5	Clinton Portis	306	0.98	273	33	RB1
2018	New York Giants	24	Saquon Barkley	352	0.96	261	91	RB1+
2005	Seattle Seahawks	3	Shaun Alexander	385	0.96	370	15	RB1E
2016	Buffalo Bills	1	LeSean McCoy	285	0.95	234	51	RB1
2011	Philadelphia Eagles	5	LeSean McCoy	321	0.95	273	48	RB1+
2010	Kansas City Chiefs	1	Jamaal Charles	275	0.95	230	45	RB1
2003	San Diego Chargers	6	LaDainian Tomlinson	413	0.94	313	100	RB1E
2005	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Larry Johnson	369	0.93	336	33	RB1E
2006	Philadelphia Eagles	11	Brian Westbrook	317	0.92	240	77	RB1
2010	Houston Texans	7	Arian Foster	393	0.91	327	66	RB1E
2011	Baltimore Ravens	10	Ray Rice	367	0.90	291	76	RB1+
2009	Tennessee Titans	2	Chris Johnson	408	0.90	358	50	RB1E
2014	Seattle Seahawks	1	Marshawn Lynch	317	0.90	280	37	RB1
2003	Green Bay Packers	3	Ahman Green	405	0.89	355	50	RB1E
2003	Denver Broncos	2	Clinton Portis	328	0.89	290	38	RB1
2007	San Diego Chargers	7	LaDainian Tomlinson	375	0.89	315	60	RB1+
2013	Denver Broncos	15	Knowshon Moreno	301	0.89	241	60	RB1
2007	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Brian Westbrook	368	0.88	278	90	RB1+
2014	Pittsburgh Steelers	16	Le’Veon Bell	373	0.88	290	83	RB1+
2016	Dallas Cowboys	2	Ezekiel Elliott	354	0.87	322	32	RB1+
2004	New York Giants	11	Tiki Barber	374	0.86	322	52	RB1+
2009	Baltimore Ravens	5	Ray Rice	332	0.86	254	78	RB1
2006	St. Louis Rams	17	Steven Jackson	436	0.85	346	90	RB1E
2002	Seattle Seahawks	20	Shaun Alexander	354	0.84	295	59	RB1
2012	Minnesota Vikings	2	Adrian Peterson	388	0.84	348	40	RB1+
2009	Minnesota Vikings	13	Adrian Peterson	357	0.84	314	43	RB1
2005	San Diego Chargers	9	LaDainian Tomlinson	390	0.84	339	51	RB1+
2011	Houston Texans	2	Arian Foster	331	0.84	278	53	RB1
2000	Green Bay Packers	23	Ahman Green	336	0.83	263	73	RB1
2013	Philadelphia Eagles	1	LeSean McCoy	366	0.83	314	52	RB1+
2004	Seattle Seahawks	8	Shaun Alexander	376	0.83	353	23	RB1+
2015	Atlanta Falcons	19	Devonta Freeman	338	0.83	265	73	RB1
2016	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	Le’Veon Bell	336	0.83	261	75	RB1
2017	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Kareem Hunt	325	0.83	272	53	RB1
2013	Chicago Bears	16	Matt Forte	363	0.82	289	74	RB1
2000	San Francisco 49ers	18	Charlie Garner	326	0.82	258	68	RB1
2000	Denver Broncos	3	Mike Anderson	320	0.82	297	23	RB1
2009	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	Maurice Jones-Drew	365	0.81	312	53	RB1
2005	New York Giants	6	Tiki Barber	411	0.80	357	54	RB1+
2000	Indianapolis Colts	16	Edgerrin James	450	0.80	387	63	RB1E
2000	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	Fred Taylor	328	0.80	292	36	RB1
2010	Cleveland Browns	20	Peyton Hillis	331	0.80	270	61	RB1
2000	Minnesota Vikings	6	Robert Smith	331	0.79	295	36	RB1
2014	Chicago Bears	27	Matt Forte	368	0.79	266	102	RB1
2004	San Diego Chargers	6	LaDainian Tomlinson	392	0.79	339	53	RB1+
2001	Green Bay Packers	21	Ahman Green	366	0.78	304	62	RB1
2006	San Francisco 49ers	6	Frank Gore	373	0.78	312	61	RB1
2002	Miami Dolphins	2	Ricky Williams	430	0.78	383	47	RB1+
2000	Seattle Seahawks	22	Ricky Watters	341	0.78	278	63	RB1
2001	Seattle Seahawks	9	Shaun Alexander	353	0.78	309	44	RB1
2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	15	Doug Martin	368	0.78	319	49	RB1
2004	Houston Texans	12	Domanick Williams	370	0.78	302	68	RB1
2001	Kansas City Chiefs	6	Priest Holmes	389	0.78	327	62	RB1+
2002	New Orleans Saints	17	Deuce McAllister	372	0.77	325	47	RB1
2003	Seattle Seahawks	10	Shaun Alexander	368	0.77	326	42	RB1
2002	New York Giants	14	Tiki Barber	373	0.77	304	69	RB1
2006	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Larry Johnson	457	0.77	416	41	RB1E
2002	San Diego Chargers	8	LaDainian Tomlinson	451	0.76	372	79	RB1E
2018	Dallas Cowboys	10	Ezekiel Elliott	381	0.76	304	77	RB1
2016	Tennessee Titans	3	DeMarco Murray	346	0.76	293	53	RB1
2003	Baltimore Ravens	1	Jamal Lewis	413	0.76	387	26	RB1+
2006	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	Willie Parker	368	0.74	337	31	RB1
2017	Pittsburgh Steelers	20	Le’Veon Bell	406	0.74	321	85	RB1
2011	Jacksonville Jaguars	12	Maurice Jones-Drew	386	0.73	343	43	RB1
2004	New York Jets	3	Curtis Martin	412	0.73	371	41	RB1
2004	Indianapolis Colts	15	Edgerrin James	385	0.72	334	51	RB1
2012	Houston Texans	8	Arian Foster	391	0.72	351	40	RB1
2008	Chicago Bears	24	Matt Forte	379	0.72	316	63	RB1
2014	Dallas Cowboys	2	DeMarco Murray	449	0.72	392	57	RB1+
2008	Atlanta Falcons	2	Michael Turner	383	0.72	377	6	RB1
2002	Buffalo Bills	24	Travis Henry	368	0.72	325	43	RB1
2005	Indianapolis Colts	16	Edgerrin James	404	0.71	360	44	RB1
2006	New York Giants	7	Tiki Barber	385	0.70	327	58	RB1
2000	New York Jets	24	Curtis Martin	386	0.69	316	70	RB1
2003	New Orleans Saints	11	Deuce McAllister	420	0.69	351	69	RB1
2001	New York Jets	4	Curtis Martin	386	0.69	333	53	RB1
2000	Tennessee Titans	7	Eddie George	453	0.69	403	50	RB1+

First, let’s take a moment to acknowledge the unicorn angel of Fantasy Football efficiency that is Alvin Kamara. In his first season in the NFL he averaged 1.35 points per touch in half-point PPR leagues. If you had Alvin Kamara on your roster and he got 15 touches in a game, on average that was worth 20.25 points. That is absurd. As a rookie, he had the most efficient Fantasy Football season this century. But, the following year, his efficiency dropped by 17%. Sounds awful, right? Not really. That was good enough for the 3rd most efficient Fantasy Football season of this century, second only to some guy named Marshall Faulk. Granted, Kamara is hitting these ridiculous efficiency levels on ~100 fewer touches than other similar running backs which is indeed relevant, but that doesn’t change how historically great Alvin Kamara has been. I’m a fan, if you couldn’t already tell, and there is not a player I enjoy following in Fantasy Football or watching live on TV than Alvin Kamara.

With that out of the way, let’s look at a few basic takeaways here:

The average rush offense rank for an RB1* is 9.84, but we’ll just call it 10: the average RB1* runs on a Top 10 rush offense or better (shocker, I know). There’s only been 34 RB1* seasons (completed by 25 different NFL running backs) on a rush offense ranked outside of the Top 10 in the NFL since 2000; 63% have been on a Top 10 rush offense or better. If the guy you’re targeting as an RB1* is on a rush offense that’s outside of the Top 10 in the NFL, historically, you’ve got roughly a 33% chance of that player finishing as an RB1*.
Since 2000, no NFL team has produced more RB1* seasons (8; 2001-2003; 2005-2006, 2010, 2013, 2017) or unique RB1* rushers (4; in order: Priest Holmes (3x), Larry Johnson (2x), Jamaal Charles (2x), Kareem Hunt (1x)), or repeat RB1* seasons (3; Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Jamaal Charles) than the Kansas City Chiefs. So, if the guy you’re targeting is a Kansas City Chief, you’re targeting a guy in what have historically been the most RB1*-friendly rush offenses in the NFL this century. TIFWIW.
Out of 91 RB1* seasons in half-point PPR leagues since 2000, only 8 have been on teams outside the Top 20 rush offenses (another shocker). Of note, Matt Forte and Ahman Green did it twice, which I believe notably adds to their cache as fantasy football studs in their hey-day.
There has never been an RB1E or better on a 20th ranked or worse NFL rushing offense.
Let’s see what things look like when you’re talking PPT based purely on rush offense rank:

To be perfect honestly, I really wanted to find some sort of honey pot of insight from the data set to the right but I’m still not quite sure how powerful it is. Sure, it’s obvious that an RB1* in a Top 5 or better rush offense means you’re averaging nearly a point per touch (.91), but there’s been just as many RB1*s on the 5th ranked rushing offense than the 1st ranked rushing offense, but the 5th ranked rushing offense scores nearly 1/5 a point more per touch historically. ::shrugs:: I don’t even know what to do with that.

Going a bit deeper, if you look at the bottom 5 ranks in the data set to your right, RB1s in those offenses have historically averaged .79 points per touch, where as running backs in the Top 5 ranks in that same data set average .91 points per touch. There’s just over a 1/10 of a point per touch difference between the Top 5 and Bottom 5 ranked rush offenses in the NFL for RB1*s that rush in them. That doesn’t sound like much but we’re talking about a 14% difference in efficiency.

Going even deeper now, if you’ve got an RB1* in a Top 5 rush offense getting 20 touches in a game, they’re scoring 2.4 points more per game than an RB1* in a historically Bottom 5 rush offense. Over the course of an entire 16-game season we’re talking 38.4 points, could be the difference in an RB1 and an RB1+, or an RB1+ and an RB1E from a tiering perspective.

Though it seems pedestrian at first given that we’re dealing with pretty small numerical differences, there is a notable difference between rush offense rank and fantasy efficiency performance for RB1*s. One important factor in that difference that can (and should) affect your draft strategy, trade proposals, etc., is that talent and opportunity seem to be able mask deficiencies in rush offense rank when that a running back’s situation dictates a high-level of pass catching. Take for instance the following eight guys:

2014, Matt Forte, RB1 – 102 recs (rush off. rank: 27)
2008, Matt Forte, RB1 – 63 recs (rush off. rank: 24)
2002, Travis Henry, RB1 – 43 recs (rush off. rank: 24)
2000 Curtis Martin, RB1 – 70 recs (rush off. rank: 24)
2018, Saquon Barkley, RB1+ – 91 recs (rush off. rank: 24)
2000, Ahman Green, RB1 – 73 recs (rush off. rank: 23)
2000, Ricky Waters, RB1 – 63 recs (rush off. rank: 22)
2001, Ahman Green, RB1 – 62 recs (rush off. rank: 21)

Man, poor Matt Forte. Dude was languishing on bottom-feeder rush offenses and still crushing it like nobody’s business. And a hallmark of Matt Forte’s career has been his pass catching ability, which is also what allows running backs on bottom-tier rush offenses to still reach RB1* value. The average RB1* across all NFL rush offense rankings in half-point PPR leagues averages 58 receptions on the season. Those 8 guys noted above? They averaged nearly 71 receptions per game, with only Travis Henry in 2000 being the sub-60 reception running back (he ran the ball the most out of those 8 guys though in that 2000 season, toting the rock 325 times).

So if you’re looking to draft a guy as an RB1* who you know will be in a sub-par rush offense for any host of reasons (bad offensive line, non-rational coaching, etc.), you go into knowing they’re also likely to be less efficient with each tough, so better then be targeting a guy you’re confident in getting at least 60 catches this season or your odds are slim to squeeze RB1 value out of them, much less anything better.

Rush Rank	# of RB1*s	PPT
1	5	0.88
2	9	0.85
3	8	0.91
4	3	0.87
5	5	1.05
6	7	0.86
7	4	0.80
8	5	0.84
9	4	0.80
10	7	0.83
11	3	0.82
12	2	0.76
13	1	0.84
14	2	0.80
15	4	0.86
16	4	0.80
17	3	0.96
18	3	0.97
19	1	0.83
20	3	0.79
21	1	0.78
22	1	0.78
23	1	0.83
24	4	0.77
27	1	0.79