Take a look at that table to your right. Let’s face the first obvious fact here: the odds of us seeing another LaDanian Tomlinson- or Shaun Alexander-type of career run with that many RB1* seasons is unlikely. Think about it: since 2000, only two players have had 5 or more RB1* seasons. Two, in 18 years, and the last time a player in the “4+ Club” of RB1* seasons in their career put up their last RB1* season in 2007 (Ladainian Tomlinson). Over a decade ago.

Now to be clear, just because a guy doesn’t have an RB1* season doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. But this is the RB1Machine.com, our focus is on RB1*s here, their value, and how best to leverage them for success in our Fantasy Football leagues. And nearly half (49%) of all players who have had at least one RB1* season to date haven’t done it again. It gets even more grim when you consider that nearly 80% to date (77.5%, to be a bit more precise), have never done it more than twice.

And yes, you’re right to say that some players like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, even LeVeon Bell and LeSean McCoy are on this list and are still playing, and some will likely add another one or two RB1* seasons under their belts. But how long does history suggest they can keep piling up RB1* seasons? Look at the talent that’s been capped at “just” 3 RB1* seasons: Matt Forte, Priest Holmes, LeSean McCoy, Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James…we’re talking about truly exceptional producers who just couldn’t keep producing at such a high level after piling up 3 RB1* seasons…LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Tiki Barber are the only three Fantasy Football running backs out of hundreds over the past 18 that could actually put up more than 3 RB1* seasons in their career. Again, guys like Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy were still valuable in other years when they didn’t put up an RB1* numbers, but “still valuable” and an RB1* aren’t the same. Let’s look at a recent, real-world example that was actually the inspiration for me to write to this article nearly 2 years ago.

The Curious Case of Kareem Hunt:

We all remember 2017, and how Kareem Hunt burst onto the scene. The video below is one of those games where, as a Fantasy Football GM, you remember exactly where you were watching this game if Kareem Hunt was on your roster.

2017 was the same year that, in my keeper league (where we can keep 2 players every year from Round 3 or later, for a maximum of 3 seasons on your roster, with a cost of 2 rounds earlier in the draft each successive year kept) I kept Michael Thomas for the cost of a 10th round pick and Alvin Kamara (who, by the way, I consider an other-worldly talent in a fantastic offense and, without a very lucrative package as he only costs me a 7th round pick this season, he’s not leaving my roster) for the cost of an 11th round pick. I had also drafted Dalvin Cook in the 4th. I had a strong playoff-ready roster, but I wanted more firepower, specifically at running back, as I had lost Dalvin Cook to injury. I then set my eyes on Kareem Hunt.

I ended up trading for Kareem Hunt in Week 8. At this point in the 2017 season, as you may remember, Hunt was in a slump, one that he didn’t come out of until Week 14 (and at the time, I thought there was no way his slump continued for much longer beyond Week 8. I also was dead wrong.). Hunt’s owner, Moldner, a savvy and seasoned Fantasy Football GM who’s never against parting with any piece of his squad for the right price, saw that he could still sell relatively high on Kareem Hunt, even while in this slump. He drafted him in the 4th round and he could be kept next year for only a 2nd round pick. If Kareem Hunt stayed healthy for at least one more year then he projected to be a fantastic value as a keeper. At the pace he was at to start the 2017 season, he’d be a Top-5 pick in 2018 that could be kept at a 2nd round value. While not an insane bargain, it’s still a great overall value, especially if you were picking early in your draft.

In exchange for Kareem Hunt, Moldner got Michael Thomas from me (who could be kept for an 8th round pick the next season) and Dalvin Cook to stash in his IR spot (and if his recovery went well, may well be worth keeping in the 2nd round of next year’s draft). I saw it as a win-win, essentially trading Kareem Hunt straight-up for Michael Thomas; I didn’t say this but I had no desire to keep Dalvin Cook after his injury. Moldner gave up a very productive but currently slumping RB1* for a WR who would become Fantasy Football’s best WR option and an RB1* in Cook (before his injury) who had the potential to return to that level with an off-season of successful healing. Kareem Hunt ended up doing nothing for me the rest of the season or in the playoffs, I was ousted in in the first round, and I didn’t even end up keeping him. And even though in 2018 Kareem Hunt was on pace for an RB1* season prior to Week 11, Moldner sold high and got far more ROI from Kareem Hunt not being on his roster than having him. And next season, he was Fantasy Football’s best WR in our half-point PPR league. And while hindsight is 20/20, let’s be clear: I lost that trade big time.

What’s unique to Kareem Hunt’s scenario is also the fact that ended up missing the last 3rd of the 2018 NFL season, cut for domestic violence that was caught on video. He was again producing at RB1* levels prior to that, so I understand why some would say, “Well, if that didn’t happen, he’d have been on to his 2nd RB1* season in as many years, so you’re not really making a good point here.” I get that.

But here’s the cold, hard fact of the matter: He didn’t finish as an RB1*… he missed the opportunity to finish a season that most likely would have been though, and the data now suggests that he likely won’t have another.

Period.